Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Santa Rosa Homes for Sale - the market is local

This is an article from Inman news that really makes a point about Santa Rosa homes for sale in a local market.

Broad housing market reports are a dime a dozen these days, and if you ask me, that's a good approximation of their worth. Markets are sliced and diced and compared across the board, drawing multiple -- and often conflicting -- conclusions with shaky, obsolete data. The market's up, or maybe it's down. It's good, it's bad, and it's confusing.

For most people, even with access to all this information the results are more inconsistent than ever, often dated and out of context. But they don't have to be.

Timely and accurate information, provided on a local level with a real-world perspective, is the real estate market's most important commodity -- and the ability of the public, government, financial institutions, investors and real estate professionals to make informed decisions on local housing markets is the cornerstone of an eventual housing recovery.

Isn't it time we stop trying to drive by, looking in the rear-view mirror, and insist on seeing just the facts, clearly, as they unfold?

Considering the critical role that real estate statistics play in just about every housing-related decision, it is time for our industry to rally around better data. We owe it to ourselves, our clients and our profession to insist on timeliness and clarity while delving into the motivations and methodologies of every metric we disseminate.

The most recent Case-Shiller Home Price Index of May 31 is a perfect example: It noted, of all the U.S. markets it tracks, the Washington, D.C., metro area as the only market to experience an increase in housing prices for the first quarter of 2011.

While this index may be useful for Wall Street, it hardly constitutes breaking news. Improving market conditions were reported three weeks earlier in an index produced by an MRIS subsidiary.

Metric discrepancies are about more than selling products or securing a reputation in the marketplace -- they go to the heart of how we think about information. The one real estate mantra that has remained unequivocally true through some of the most tumultuous years in the history of our profession is that all real estate is local.

By focusing on broad market-to-market comparisons instead of individual markets, we undercut our value as real estate professionals. Instead of chasing fleeting affirmations that change day in and day out, we should ensure that real estate professionals know how to read and apply local data.

Let's focus more on whether single-family homes or condos are more prevalent in a single area, the variance of seasonal market shifts, or the changes in sales activity that often precede major trends.

Let's talk about the facts as they stand today and refrain from basing decisions on reports that are already five to seven months behind the market when they hit newsstands.

We're never going to move forward as a profession by basing decisions on old data, and we'll never overcome paralysis if we compare our local markets to every other market in the country without considering the context of local driving forces.

Most people won't buy stocks today based solely on six-month-old research, nor will they decide what to wear today based on the average temperature in New York. Why don't the same principles apply to real estate?

For even more insights about Santa Rosa real estate and a list of Santa Rosa homes for sale please visit www.berghof-realty.com

Thursday, March 5, 2009

It's Always Darkest Before The Dawn

It's hard for Santa Rosa Real Estate to escape the total economic collapse the US is experiencing. The stats keep coming and nothing is good. But I see and end coming to this slide, and my money is still on Spring 2009.
clipped from news.yahoo.com

A record 5.4 million American homeowners with a mortgage of any kind, or nearly 12 percent, were at least one month late or in foreclosure at the end of last year, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported. That's up from 10 percent at the end of the third quarter, and up from 8 percent at the end of 2007.

The only bright spot in the report is the devastation wrought by subprime ARMs appears to be waning. Their 30-day delinquency rate continues to fall and is at the lowest point since the first quarter of 2007.

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Tuesday, February 3, 2009

The Bottom of the Santa Rosa Real Estate Market May Be Forming

Right on schedule, small bright spots start to emerge in the real estate market. I've blogged about this before, my prediction for the real estate turn around is spring of this year and though it is too early to tell, this bit of good news is the beginning of the end. I'll be snatching up a deal in the April, May, June time frame.
clipped from finance.yahoo.com

It was the second positive sign in the past two weeks for the troubled U.S. housing market, and may indicate that a bottom is forming -- at least for home sales. Analysts, however, caution that prices are likely to keep falling through 2009, and say the outlook for home sales is uncertain, especially as layoffs mount and banks' lending standards remain tight.

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for previously owned homes for December rose 6.3 percent to 87.7 from an upwardly revised November reading of 82.5, which was lowest month on record. That's better than the 82.3 reading economists expected, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.

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Thursday, January 29, 2009

Home Sales Drop in December. What is the effect on Santa Rosa Real Estate

Another data point in a long line of downward pressure. Santa Rosa real estate is not immune to national trends and this data on new homes is shocking. Annual new home sales of 331,000 with more than a year of inventory. Don't look for construction jobs to be back anytime soon.
clipped from finance.yahoo.com

The Commerce Department said Thursday that new home sales fell 14.7 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 331,000, from a downwardly revised November figure of 388,000.

December's sales pace was the lowest on records dating back to 1963. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected sales would fall to a rate of 400,000 homes.

The inventory of unsold new homes stood at a seasonally adjusted 357,000 in December, down 10 percent from November. But at the current sales pace, it would take a more than a year to exhaust the stock as houses are dumped onto a market already glutted by a tide of foreclosures.

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Thursday, January 22, 2009

Santa Rosa Real Estate Prices for 2009

It's anyone's guess when the bottom of the Santa Rosa real estate market will be found. My money is on Spring of 2009 but there are plenty of people who think it won't come to 2010 or beyond.

If you have to sell in this market, here are a couple of pieces of good advice.
clipped from finance.yahoo.com

In many markets, sellers will face the toughest competition not from fellow homeowners but from banks and builders. Both will be willing to cut prices dramatically to sell a foreclosed or new home.

Go to Zillow.com to see how much nearby homes fetched recently. Once you've figured out what a buyer might pay, price your house 5% below that.

Sound painful? A recent study by a New Jersey appraiser found that houses priced below market ended up selling for more than similar houses listed above market. That's because lower prices attract more buyers.

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Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Santa Rosa Real Estate Bleak But May Look Up in Spring

Santa Rosa Real Estate shows little signs of improving with declines in Q4. But we are starting to see the signs that Spring will bring the beginning of the end of the slump.
clipped from news.yahoo.com

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in November, dropped 4.0 percent to 82.3, the lowest level since the series started in 2001. That was worse than economists' expectations for a 0.1 percent drop.

"The housing market is always quiet at the turn of the year so what matters now is the performance through the spring, when activity usually rises," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at HFE in New York.

"With mortgage rates dropping sharply we are cautiously optimistic that sales will not fall much further and should even rebound a bit by mid-year. But the immediate outlook is bleak."

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Sunday, December 14, 2008

What Does 2009 Hold In Store For Santa Rosa Real Estate

clipped from finance.yahoo.com
Home prices in the nations 10 biggest metro areas are projected to keep falling in 2009, with Miami and Los Angeles suffering most.
Metro area2009 median home price2009 change
New York393,210-13.7
Los Angeles269,614-17.2
Notes: Prices are projections for the end of 2009. Change is from the end of 2008.

Source: Moody's Economy.com

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the perpetually optimistic National Association of Realtors, says he expects prices to rise 2.8% in 2009.

Go to Zillow.com to see how much nearby homes fetched recently. Once you've figured out what a buyer might pay, price your house 5% below that.

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